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On four separate occasions, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Health and Human Services secretary, has suggested that the measles outbreak in Texas, which is now over 500 cases, is beginning to subside and grow more slowly. But a review of state data indicates there’s no decline yet in the pace of cases.
During a visit to West Texas to attend the funeral of an unvaccinated 8-year-old who died of measles, Kennedy said in an April 6 post on X that since the deployment of a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention team in early March, “the growth rates for new cases and hospitalizations have flattened.”
Two days later, in Phoenix, Arizona, Kennedy repeated the claim. “Our strategy has been very successful,” he said of dealing with the measles outbreak. “The number continues to grow by the day, but the growth rate … has diminished substantially.”
In an interview CBS News released on April 9, he said, “the rate of the increase has substantially decreased, so we are successfully controlling it.” And in an April 10 Cabinet meeting, Kennedy again said that measles cases “have now plateaued.”
Dr. Andrew T. Pavia, an expert in pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Utah, told us that Kennedy is wrong. “I don’t think any epidemiologists believe there is evidence that the measles outbreak is subsiding,” he said in an email. “To the contrary, there are indicators that the outbreak is larger than the number of confirmed cases that have been reported.”
In most of his remarks, Kennedy also made an apples-to-oranges comparison with Europe, which he incorrectly claimed currently had 127,000 measles cases and 37 deaths. His attempts to minimize the U.S. outbreak through that comparison ignore that measles is endemic in parts of Europe.
Kennedy has previously downplayed the Texas measles outbreak. Prior to becoming health secretary, he was a well-known anti-vaccine advocate, and he has shared incorrect or misleading information about measles and the vaccine as the nation’s top health official.
As of April 8, 505 measles cases have been reported in the West Texas outbreak, including 57 hospitalizations and two deaths, both in unvaccinated children without underlying health conditions, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. Almost all of the cases — 98% — have been in people who are unvaccinated or have an unknown vaccination status. The Texas outbreak also seeded or is thought to have seeded outbreaks in New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas.
Texas Outbreak Poised for Further Growth
It’s unclear what information Kennedy might have been using to make his claim that the Texas outbreak is not growing as rapidly as it once was. HHS did not respond to our question asking about how he had calculated his growth rates.
Once there are fewer susceptible people to sustain the outbreak at its current clip — either from people gaining immunity by getting vaccinated or falling ill — the outbreak will begin to slow. But there isn’t evidence of a decline in cases yet.
We plotted the cumulative reported measles cases in the Texas outbreak over time, both by rash onset and by the dates when case and hospitalizations were announced by state health officials. Both graphs show a steady, linear rise of cases since early in the outbreak. Hospitalizations show a similar trend. There is no evident decrease in the rate of either cases or hospitalizations. (We also plotted the CDC’s national measles case numbers, announced weekly, but we didn’t see a decline in those figures, either.)
Between March 21 and April 4, measles cases announced by the state grew by 56%. In the prior two weeks, the case growth rate was the same — 56%.
“The graphs clearly don’t show flattening,” Pavia said.
The Texas health department did not comment specifically on Kennedy’s claim, but told us in an email that to “make it easier for people to understand the course of the outbreak,” the department had included “an epidemic curve” on its dashboard and added information about the change in case counts for each of its updates.
The state’s epidemic curve, which is organized by rash onset and is what we used to create the second graph, notes that additional cases may still be reported for dates three weeks prior and that people with measles “are contagious from four days before rash onset to four days after.”
Pavia said it takes about 12 to 14 days after an exposure for a rash to appear, which is usually when testing occurs. Those results can take another one to two days to come back, with more time to update the numbers. “We always see smaller numbers in the current 1-2 weeks because of diagnostic and reporting delays,” he said.
Other experts have also objected to Kennedy’s characterization of the outbreak growth rate and the general notion that the Texas outbreak is under control. Measles is one of the most contagious diseases and infects around 90% of people who are exposed and lack immunity, according to the CDC.
“I don’t know, a 26% increase in a week … that’s not flattening,” Dr. Peter Marks, the Food and Drug Administration’s former top vaccine regulator, told STAT News, after Kennedy made the first of his statements. “It’s a way of trying to decrease concern that could potentially keep this outbreak going.” Marks has said he was recently forced to resign from his position after pressure from Kennedy.
“This outbreak is far from under control — even if the curve begins to flatten, we still face major risks in under-vaccinated communities across the country,” John Brownstein, an epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School and ABC News contributor, told the news outlet. “With so many pockets of low vaccination, we’re still on the brink of widespread, sustained transmission unless urgent action is taken.”
One concern is that the Texas outbreak may be much larger than it appears, due to a lack of testing. Measles has also begun to circulate in the city of Lubbock, a more densely populated area of West Texas, concerning health officials.
On April 8, Lubbock’s public health director, Katherine Wells, cautioned in a press conference that cases could expand as there are more opportunities for the virus to spread. “It just gets much bigger, much quicker in these urban areas,” she said, according to STAT.
Public health officials anticipate that spring break travel could increase cases and have previously said the Texas outbreak could last for a year, as the Texas Tribune reported. If continued transmission lasts more than a year, the U.S. will lose its measles elimination status.
On April 7, the Texas health department updated its list of counties it designates as part of the outbreak area. The list now includes 10 counties — five new ones, including Lubbock, with one removed, since early March — that the state says “have ongoing transmission of measles.”
In those areas, children are recommended to receive a dose of the measles, mumps and rubella, or MMR vaccine, earlier, starting at 6 months old rather than 12 months, with a second dose also moved up if a child has not yet turned 4, when a second dose is usually first recommended. Two doses are 97% effective in preventing measles, while one is 93% effective, according to the CDC.
Misleading Comparison with Europe
Kennedy also repeatedly made a misleading comparison with Europe.
“I would compare it to what’s happening in Europe now,” he said in Arizona, just after saying that the Texas outbreak growth rate has “diminished substantially.” He continued: “We’ve had 640 cases here. They’ve had 127,000 cases and 37 deaths. And so what we’re doing here in the United States is a model for the rest of the world.”
In the CBS interview, which was recorded on April 8, but not released until the next day, Kennedy recited the same figures, adding that there will always be measles cases “because the vaccine wanes very quickly.” (As we’ve written, vaccine waning is not a key reason why outbreaks occur — it’s because not enough people are vaccinated.)
“The CDC has done an amazing job at getting the measles outbreak under control,” Kennedy also said in the Cabinet meeting. “We have about 680 cases now in 22 states, compared to the same outbreak in Europe, which is 127,000 cases and 37 deaths.”
In mid-March, the WHO issued a press release with similar figures (127,350 cases and 38 deaths). But the numbers are actually for all of last year, and apply to the WHO’s European region, which is composed of 53 countries in Europe and Central Asia. It’s a vast area that stretches from the Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans and includes places such as Kyrgyzstan and Romania, where measles is especially common, as well as nine other nations where measles is endemic.
“It is a bit like saying we are doing well compared to measles in Africa,” Pavia said.
The WHO release notes that the 2024 measles cases were the highest in more than 25 years, and attributed the increase to lowered vaccination rates. In that respect, the situation is similar, as lowered vaccine coverage in the U.S. is what allows for sustained outbreaks to occur. But the primary reason why there are so many fewer measles cases in the U.S. is because the country already successfully eliminated the disease through widespread vaccination.
Since becoming health secretary, Kennedy has at times noted some benefits of vaccination. In the same X post in which he first made his claim about the outbreak slowing, Kennedy wrote, “The most effective way to prevent the spread of measles is the MMR vaccine.” And in the CBS interview, Kennedy made his clearest endorsement to date, saying, “We encourage people to get the measles vaccine,” after being pressed to do so.
Despite Kennedy’s use of the words “we encourage,” parts of the interview were devoted to Kennedy’s claims of inadequate safety testing of vaccines and the unsupported idea that the most recent child to die of the measles didn’t die of the disease. He still has not said the MMR vaccine is safe and did not mention the recommendation that children in outbreak areas get vaccinated early to protect themselves.
Hours after his April 6 X post, he praised two Texas physicians in another post for using unsupported treatments for measles, calling them “two extraordinary healers … who have treated and healed some 300 measles-stricken Mennonite children using aerosolized budesonide and clarithromycin.”
Pointing to his first April 6 X post and his Fox News editorial, Vianca N. Rodriguez Feliciano, HHS press secretary, told us that Kennedy “has advocated for the use of the MMR vaccine” and “has responded with clear guidance that vaccines are the most effective way to prevent measles.”
She also said that Dr. James Campbell, “a notable pediatric infectious disease professor,” told CBS News that budesonide and clarithromycin “can be used to help treat respiratory illnesses and bacterial coinfections, respectively, which would be considered symptomatic management.”
Similar to what we explained when we first addressed Kennedy’s claims about those drugs, Campbell did say that the medicines might be used in certain circumstances once someone has a measles infection. But he emphasized that there was no evidence supporting their routine use in children with measles.
“These choices should be made on an individual basis by the doctors, not as sweeping recommendations for all children with measles,” he said in the cited story.
“In 2025, we should not have to treat measles in the US because it is completely preventable,” Campbell also said, adding that “for those who do get measles, rigorous studies, and not anecdotal reports, will help us to better treat them.”
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